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The Facts on Anti-Trans Ads: Years in, Anti-Trans Attacks Remain a Political Loser
by Brandon Wolf •
Voters have routinely rejected candidates who peddle transphobia and try to control their personal health care decisions, and polling shows widespread American support for equality, Democrats as defenders of young people, and a rejection of anti-transgender rhetoric.
In State After State, Anti-Trans Attacks Have Failed
MAGA venture capitalist Blake Masters ran his 2022 US Senate campaign on an anti-transgender platform and falsely accused Democrats of “indoctrinating children.” He campaigned on the abolition of the US Department of Education over the existence of transgender people, legislation banning access to medically necessary care for transgender youth, and likened acknowledging the existence of transgender people to “child abuse.” Masters, who was dubbed by the Washington post as one of the “worst candidates in the 2022 election,” lost his race by nearly 5 points.
MAGA groups American Principles Project and Citizens for Sanity ran hundreds of thousands of dollars in anti-transgender ads in support of 2022 US Senate candidate Herschel Walker. Walker was defeated in a run-off by nearly 3 points.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Derek Schmidt launched a vicious anti-transgender campaign against incumbent Governor Laura Kelly, attempting to use Governor Kelly’s veto of a ban on transgender youth participation in sports as a wedge. Schmidt named the issue as one of his top priorities, even bringing in anti-transgender activist Riley Gaines to stump for him and signaling support for Florida’s anti-LGBTQ+ education policies. Schmidt was defeated.
The American Principles Project launched a $2million anti-transgender ad campaign targeting incumbent Governor Andy Beshear for his support for transgender young people and the freedom for their families to access health care. The campaign included false smears accusing the governor of separating children from their families. The multi-million dollar campaign failed and Governor Beshear was re-elected by 5 points in a state that Donald Trump carried by 26 points just three years before.
American Principles Project-endorsed MAGA candidate Tudor Dixon made attacking transgender people a primary focus of her campaign. She lobbed false smears about incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s support for restroom access for transgender youth, supported book bans, endorsed “severe criminal penalties” for parents who take their children to drag shows, and smeared teachers for their support for all students. Dixon was crushed in that 2022 race, losing by 11 points to Governor Whitmer. Then Michigan GOP Chief of Staff Paul Cordes blamed Dixon’s loss on her obsession with transgender people, noting that “middle of the road voters simply didn’t like what Tudor was selling.”
MAGA bully Adam Laxalt used his 2022 US Senate campaign to rail against transgender rights. Laxalt endorsed Florida’s anti-LGBTQ+ wave of legislation and hurled smears against the LGBTQ+ community. The American Principles Project spent over $275,000 on mail, radio, and digital ads attacking Laxalt’s opponent, incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, for her support of transgender Nevadans. Those ads failed, as Cortez Masto defeated Laxalt in the November election.
Anti-abortion group “Protect Ohio Women” spent $5.5million on anti-transgender ads in support of 2023’s Issue 1, an August ballot measure to make it harder for reproductive rights supporters to put abortion rights onto the Ohio ballot. The ads tried to stoke fears about access to health care for transgender youth, using the community as a wedge in the fight against reproductive freedom. The multi-million dollar campaign failed, Issue 1 was defeated, and voters went on to enshrine reproductive freedom into the state’s Constitution in November.
America First Legal, led by Trump acolyte Stephen Miller, and its affiliate, Citizens for Sanity, ran anti-transgender radio and television ads across the state in an effort to defeat then-candidates John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro. The ads failed, as Fetterman was elected to the US Senate and Shapiro was elected Governor.
The American Principles Project ran anti-transgender ads targeting Governor Tony Evers for his stalwart support for transgender Wisconsinites, including his support for access to sports participation for transgender youth. Evers’ opponent, Tim Michels parroted the anti-transgender messaging, targeting Evers for his support for LGBTQ+ people. The attacks failed and Governor Evers was re-elected by nearly 4 points.
$485,000 was spent on anti-LGBTQ+ broadcast and CTV ads specifically targeting pro-equality candidates during the 2023 general election period. Danica Roem, the Commonwealth’s first openly transgender legislator, was the target of more than 30 anti-transgender mass mailers, including some that distributed her personal phone number. The ads were a failure. The number of openly LGBTQ+ state legislators nearly doubled that cycle, including wins by Roem, who became the first openly transgender state Senator in the Commonwealth, and Rozia Henson, the first openly gay Black man elected to the Virginia legislature.
In 2022 Post-Election Polling, Equality Was a Winner and Anti-LGBTQ+ Attacks Were A Dud
Equality Voters delivered huge margins to Democrats at every level of the ballot.
At the U.S. House level, 81 percent of Equality Voters supported the Democratic candidate. Equality Voters delivered similar margins for Democratic U.S. Senate candidates and Democratic candidates for governor.
That number was comparable to the level of support Equality Voters gave Joe Biden in 2020 (also 81 percent) and nearly matched the level of support Black voters delivered this cycle (87 percent).
- Among self-identified LGBTQ+ voters, who made up a midterm record 7 percent of the 2022 electorate, fully 80 percent supported U.S. House Democrats. LGBTQ+ voters delivered similar margins for Democratic U.S. Senate candidates and Democratic candidates for governor.
MAGA efforts to spread propaganda about and attack transgender people failed.
In this survey, voters were asked which specific issues motivated them to vote this year. Inflation (52 percent) and abortion (29 percent) ranked first and second on this list. Less than 5 percent identified gender affirming care for transgender youth or transgender participation in sports as issues motivating them to vote – last on this list.
This confirmed extensive research prior to the election that found anti-transgender attacks were only effective in riling up extreme members of the conservative base
While the attacks were ineffective with the general electorate and in fact repelled swing voters, they still caused harm, including increasing stigma, discrimination, and violence against the transgender community.
A Super Majority of Americans Support Equality
New data from Navigator Research shows strong majority support for LGBTQ+ equality, and deep concern over MAGA attacks on fundamental freedoms.
Nearly two-in-three Americans support federal nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ+ people, including 58% of independents and 42% of Republicans.
61% say they will not support candidates who want to ban health care for transgender people, including 59% of independents and 41% of Republicans.
70% say they are concerned that politicians are attacking gay and transgender youth to divide us, maintain their political power and control, and score political points, a clear indication that the American people see through the MAGA anti-LGBTQ+ agenda.
A majority of Americans agree that parents, mental health professionals, and doctors are best equipped to decide the kind of care a child needs, not politicians.
The vast majority of Americans — 7 in 10 — think that politicians are not informed enough about abortion and gender-affirming care to create fair policies
According to September 2023 polling by The 19th and SurveyMonkey, Americans would prefer that politicians either protect transgender people or not focus on transgender issues at all. Only 17% of Americans, and only 29% of Republicans, say politicians should focus on restricting gender-affirming care.
Americans Believe the Amount of Anti-LGBTQ+ Legislation Is Excessive, Agreeing It Is “Political Theater”
Likely voters across all political parties look at GOP efforts to flood state legislatures with anti-LGBTQ+ legislation as political theater. Polling indicates that 64% of all likely voters, including 72% of Democrats, 65% of Independents, and 55% of Republicans think that there is “too much legislation” aimed at “limiting the rights of transgender and gay people in America” (Data For Progress survey of 1,220 likely voters, 3/24-26, 2023).
This quote from Cuban-American former Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen sums it up:
“Intolerance is not a good look on anyone. I remain optimistic that voters will see through this charade and will encourage their elected officials to solve the real problems of America instead of masquerading as Moral Police Officers.”
Majorities Disapprove of Banning LGBTQ+ Content in Schools – and Seem Prepared to Punish Candidates Who Do So
When asked if middle school libraries should include materials related to “gender identity” (57% “should”) and “sexual orientation” (56%), the majority of Americans believe this content should be available. In fact, by a margin of 32 percentage points, Americans are more worried that “materials that could be valuable to students will be removed from school libraries” (62%), than worry that “materials that could be harmful to students will remain in school libraries” (30%).
Yet again, Democrats and Independents are in a different place than their GOP counterparts suggesting headaches for Republicans in the 2024 elections. (Grinnell College National Poll, 3/14-19, 2023)
Indeed, it looks like this issue could be a disqualifier for elected officials who support curriculum censorship and book bans, based on recent polling (Ipsos, 4/24-25, 2023 among 1,005 adults nationwide, the vast majority of whom are registered to vote). More than six in 10 Americans say they would be less likely to back a candidate who “supports policies that ban books in schools and in school libraries on subject matter that deals with sex, sexual orientation, and gender identity” (38% more likely, 62% less likely).
And Americans Trust Democrats to Defend Equality, Youth Wellbeing
The 2024 Navigator Research poll showed that President Biden and the Democratic Party are more trusted than Republicans to safeguard LGBTQ+ equality and protect America’s youth.
60% of those polled say they trust Democrats to protect the LGBTQ+ community, compared to just 19% who say they trust the GOP.
54% say they trust Democrats to protect the rights and freedoms of the community, compared to just 22% who say they trust the GOP.
- 46% say they trust Democrats to care for children’s wellbeing, compared to just 37% who say they trust the GOP.
- Topics:
- Laws and Legislation
- Transgender
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